AAVR Magazine

SanMan: Can Young’uns and Veterans Co-Exist?

I know it has been a long time since my last post, but as promised, here are my thoughts on the 2008 Yankee’s starting rotation, which is set but questionable. (Please do not forget that I am a die hard Yankees fan)

The Yankees starting rotation is a big mix of youthful arms and veteran leadership. At the head of the rotation we have Chien-Ming Wang. Last year Wang went 19 and 7 with an ERA around 3.70. With these statistics he was the Yankees most reliable arm last year. However, this is somewhat deceiving. Wang relies heavily on his signature pitch, the sinker ball. But this pitch is very unstable. The weather plays a huge role in the movement of the ball, and if it continues to stay flat he will get rocked. Another one of his better pitches is the two-seamed fastball,  which hits speeds up to the mid 90’s. He can spot this effectively and when jamming righties, it is very efficient. The only thing to watch out fot his year is Wang’s blow-ups. In most of the games he lost, Wang gave up an average of 7 runs. With Wang at the top of the rotation he is also going to be facing the opposing teams best pitcher and I would not expect a repeat performance of last year. Expect around 20 wins but I would also throw in a few extra losses. (Prediction:19-10 with ERA about 4)

Moving into the two spot in the rotation we have Andy Pettite. Over the off season he has faced many issues with his past rehabilitation practices. Now I think he is focused, though, and ready to get back into the swing of things under Joe Girardi’s watchful eye. Last year Pettite started 34 games and went 15 and 9 with a just over 4 ERA. The numbers are just below average for Pettite. However, age and help are a concern this year. Pettite is getting older and losing velocity in his fastball. Now he hits low 90’s. However, he is still able to work a very good change-up into the mix and still has one of the best curveballs in the business. I think Pettite will be a decent starter this year and put up about the same numbers this year as last. Expect about 15 wins again out of Pettite and about 11 or so losses.

Philip Hughes is one of the young arms in the rotation this year and has been put into the three spot. Last year Hughes went 5 and 3 in 13 starts and a 4.46 ERA. Since pitchers and catchers reported this spring for the Yankees, Hughes has shown nothing but positives. In his last few bullpen sessions Jose Molina has said that there is more pop on his ball. He has been clocked at 95 mph, which is pretty impressive. The only question mark is, will he be able to maintain the speed and consistency throughout the season? Another big key to Hughes is going to be the effectiveness of his curveball and slider. If he is able to make the key pitches this season, and limit mental mistakes he will do well this year. Right now I am optimistic and say he will go 16-10 with about 4 ERA.

Mike Mussina is another veteran arm for the Yankees this year. Last year he did not have a good year, going 11 and 10 with a 5.15 ERA. Mussina showed glimpses last year of a very effective pitcher, hitting his spots well and keeping a good velocity on the ball. But in his worst starts, his ball was not moving much and the fastball was low 90’s. Last year Mussina was also rested a bit, so endurance may be an issue this year again. Expect a better season this year from Mussina as he faces the number 4 starter of the opposing team. I predict a 16-12 record with below 5 ERA this year.

The final spot of the rotation is still up for grabs by two young arms, Igawa and Kennedy. (Chamberlain may be thrown in the mix this year as well). If it were my choice, I would put Kennedy in too see how he handles the pressure and keep Igawa in the bullpen. Long relievers are also helpful in the bad starters games. Chamberlain is also going to start in the bullpen this year and with his strict pitch count and innings limit he may not become a starter. I think he is better serving us in the bullpen to set-up Rivera.

This year is going to be a year of streaks for the Yankees starting pitchers, but it is going to be a good year nonetheless. Hopefully all will stay healthy in spring training and when the opener in Yankee stadium is upon us they will all be in pristene condition.

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